I believe what they had announced was a commitment for a decade year to come meaning it was for the long run. I don't think they will scrap the commitment anytime soon unless this slowdown continues to the end of the year.
So wait, the power glitch at Toshiba is supposedly going to lead to a shortage of supply of raw NAND, but all the other companies are deciding to cut production as well?
This straight up sounds like yet another price fixing collusion.
It seems to happen about every 10 years or so in the memory business.
It's not price fixing. It's just that all of these companies are reacting to the same market forces. The 64-layer node went really well for most companies, so supply outstripped demand and prices crashed. Now everybody's struggling to make enough profit to fund R&D beyond 96 layers, and it's starting to look like Intel's days in the NAND market are numbered. In those conditions, nobody wants to invest billions in an extra fab if it means the output will have to be sold at cost.
and it means that no new 192 layers or other magic things ssd's will appear soon, and R&D will focus on cheaper instead of bigger. End users will still win.
The DXI graph appears to show a ~10% spike around 7/8, followed by a return to steady reductions in price. The dropping prices of contracts show that the real insiders expect price deceases as well (but I can't get much info at all out of the non-paywall bits).
So is it safe to say that the price isn't really bouncing back? Man, at this point I have to wonder how did the three DRAM makers manage to get away with their extortion in the past couple of years.
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Jimbo123 - Friday, July 26, 2019 - link
Not too long ago, the Korean including Hynix claimed that they will invest $130B in semi fab facilities, see what they saying now.dropme - Friday, July 26, 2019 - link
I believe what they had announced was a commitment for a decade year to come meaning it was for the long run. I don't think they will scrap the commitment anytime soon unless this slowdown continues to the end of the year.James5mith - Friday, July 26, 2019 - link
So wait, the power glitch at Toshiba is supposedly going to lead to a shortage of supply of raw NAND, but all the other companies are deciding to cut production as well?This straight up sounds like yet another price fixing collusion.
It seems to happen about every 10 years or so in the memory business.
Billy Tallis - Friday, July 26, 2019 - link
It's not price fixing. It's just that all of these companies are reacting to the same market forces. The 64-layer node went really well for most companies, so supply outstripped demand and prices crashed. Now everybody's struggling to make enough profit to fund R&D beyond 96 layers, and it's starting to look like Intel's days in the NAND market are numbered. In those conditions, nobody wants to invest billions in an extra fab if it means the output will have to be sold at cost.deil - Monday, July 29, 2019 - link
and it means that no new 192 layers or other magic things ssd's will appear soon, and R&D will focus on cheaper instead of bigger. End users will still win.dropme - Friday, July 26, 2019 - link
I just read a news that DRAM price has by risen 20%. I'm not sure whether Hynix is being greedy or the earlier news is misleading piece.wumpus - Saturday, July 27, 2019 - link
Nearly all the good information is behind paywalls, but I found this:https://www.dramexchange.com/
The DXI graph appears to show a ~10% spike around 7/8, followed by a return to steady reductions in price. The dropping prices of contracts show that the real insiders expect price deceases as well (but I can't get much info at all out of the non-paywall bits).
dropme - Saturday, July 27, 2019 - link
So is it safe to say that the price isn't really bouncing back? Man, at this point I have to wonder how did the three DRAM makers manage to get away with their extortion in the past couple of years.